Every year, Social Security benefits in the U.S. are adjusted to keep up with inflation. This is done through a Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA. The goal is to help retirees, disabled individuals, and low-income recipients maintain their buying power even as prices go up.
For 2025, the COLA was set at 2.5%. While helpful, it was lower than the 3.2% in 2024 and far below the 8.7% spike in 2023, which followed high inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
How COLA Is Calculated
COLA is based on something called the CPI-W, or Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. This index tracks changes in the prices of everyday items like food, fuel, and housing. The Social Security Administration uses this data to decide how much to raise monthly payments each year.
The data used comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which collects it from many cities across the country. But lately, this process has run into problems.
Problems With COLA Accuracy
According to The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), the data collection for CPI-W is facing major issues. The BLS has reduced the number of places where it collects price data. In 2025, they stopped collecting from Buffalo (New York), Lincoln (Nebraska), and Provo (Utah), all due to budget cuts and a federal hiring freeze.
TSCL warns that less data could mean less accurate COLA. If the numbers don’t reflect true inflation, the increase in Social Security checks won’t match rising prices. This would hit seniors hardest, reducing their real income over time.
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Projected COLA for 2026
Despite the data problems, most analysts agree that the 2026 COLA will be around 2.5%. Here’s what experts are predicting:
- TSCL: 2.5%
- Barron’s, MarketWatch, BenefitsPro: 2.5%
- AS.com: 2.4%
- Investopedia: 2.1%
These are only early predictions. The official COLA for 2026 will be announced by the Social Security Administration in October 2025, using data collected until September.
Factors like rising tariffs or changes in consumer prices could still affect the final number.
Current Maximum Social Security Payments (2025)
The amount a person can get from Social Security each month depends on when they choose to retire:
- Age 62: Up to $2,831 per month
- Age 67: Up to $4,018 per month (full retirement age)
- Age 70: Up to $5,108 per month (delayed retirement credit)
The longer you wait to retire, the more you receive each month.
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