According to a retired senior colonel from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Donald Trump’s damage to the US reputation is creating opportunities for China, particularly in Taiwan.
Zhou Bo, speaking to the Guardian in Beijing, claimed that Trump was harming the US’s reputation “more than all of his predecessors combined”.
“By the end of his second term, I believe America’s global image will simply become more tarnished, its international standing will just go down further,” according to Zhou. The people of Taiwan “know that America is going down,” which “may affect their mentality” toward China.
In 2024, Trump stated that Taiwan should pay the US for help in defending itself, despite the fact that the self-governing island already spends billions of dollars on US arms.
Taiwan is reportedly considering purchasing an additional $7-10 billion in weapons this year, as the Taiwanese government investigates a variety of options for currying favor with the Trump administration.
“How confident would the Taiwanese be with the United States, especially with the Trump administration?” Zhou spoke. “Perhaps the Taiwanese will one day realize, ‘We can not move away anyway. We will have to stay here. Maybe it is not so bad for us to be part of the world’s strongest nation.”
Zhou retired as a senior colonel in 2020, after spending over 40 years in the PLA and the Ministry of Defense. He is now a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, and he frequently comments on Chinese foreign policy.
“Should the World Fear China?”, published on March 27, is a collection of Zhou’s essays written between 2013 and 2024, covering topics such as managing US-China relations and China’s perspective on protecting its own interests.
One of the most pressing issues in the US-China relationship is the issue of Taiwan. Beijing regards the self-governing island as part of its territory and has promised to reunite it with China, refusing to rule out the use of force.
Taiwan’s pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party won a third term in power in 2024. According to Pew Research, nearly 70% of people in Taiwan identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, with the figure rising to 85% among those under the age of 35.
The United States does not formally recognize Taiwan, but it is its largest security partner. Trump’s stance on Taiwan has remained unclear.
Despite suggesting that the United States’ support for Taiwan may come at a cost, he is surrounded by China hawks who are staunchly opposed to China’s claims on Taiwan. Earlier this month, the State Department removed a line from its Taiwan fact sheet that read: “We do not support Taiwan independence,” a move that Beijing condemned.
Zhou stated that the fate of Taiwan was not solely up to the Taiwanese people. Taiwan has a population of 23 million, while China has 1.4 billion people. “We do not have to think only about what the Taiwanese think. We must consider what mainlanders think about it.
‘China is definitely indispensable’
Despite tensions over Taiwan, Zhou believes Trump is “rather friendly” to China, noting that tariffs on Chinese imports announced in Trump’s first days in office were significantly lower than the 60% he had threatened.
In recent weeks, Trump’s comments on China have been relatively muted, in part because the US has been preoccupied with Ukraine, an issue that erupted spectacularly when Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy clashed in the Oval Office on Friday.
In the early stages of the Ukrainian conflict, western leaders relied on China’s president, Xi Jinping, to use his influence in Russia to help end the conflict. However, China has served as an economic lifeline for Russia, allowing the war to continue.
On February 24, the third anniversary of the Ukraine invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Xi via video call. According to a Chinese readout, the Chinese leader described China-Russia relations as “strong” and “unique” and “not affected by any third party”.
“The US really holds the key to resolving this issue,” Zhou said, dismissing the notion that China was becoming irrelevant in peace talks. “China is undoubtedly indispensable…” When a ceasefire or armistice is reached, China will play a role.
According to Zhou, China may decide to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, along with other non-NATO European countries and countries from the global south, because peacekeepers from NATO countries would be perceived as “wolves in sheep’s clothing” by Russia. China is the second-largest contributor to the UN’s peacekeeping budget, trailing the United States.
China’s academic and policy circles widely agree that the country has received far too much criticism for its relationship with Russia. The two countries share a 4,200-kilometer border, which was fully agreed upon by both sides in 2003.
The argument is that while Beijing is the more powerful partner in the relationship, it must also balance Moscow’s interests. Zhou described the China-Russia relationship as “strong but short of an alliance.” “I describe it as two lines running parallel. That is, no matter how close they are, they will not overlap.